Japan Business Closures Reveal Deeper Crisis Than Demographics

Jun 12, 2025 | Culture, Strategy, Work | 0 comments

Written by Matt Ketchum

Matt Ketchum is CEO of Akiyaz, business advisor at MKUltraman, curator at Kaala Music, and an active guitarist, where he forges unlikely paths between rural real estate, underground sound, and visionary strategy.

Japan business closures have surged, not only in rural towns but also in bustling city corners. While population decline grabs headlines, the small business crisis unfolding is shaped more by systemic inertia, succession problems, and a reluctance to innovate than just by age. A recent video titled “Why 99% of Small Businesses in Japan Could Be Wiped Out” frames the collapse of Japanese small businesses as a demographic inevitability. That framing is partially accurate—but dangerously incomplete. This is not just a problem of fewer babies or longer lifespans. It is a cultural freeze. A policy failure. And it is something Japan can change, if it chooses to.

It's Not Just About Age

The video points out that Japan’s population is aging, and many owners are retiring with no successor. But here’s the deeper truth: countless businesses shutting down are still profitable. They’re not being abandoned because they failed economically. They’re being abandoned because the system refuses to imagine a future not bound by the past.

The succession problems dominating this space aren’t natural. They’re designed.

  • Inheriting a family business is framed as duty, not opportunity
  • Government programs are poorly matched to reality on the ground
  • Many operations resist even basic modernization, making them unappealing to younger successors

A vibrant 60-year-old tofu maker in Kochi told us he’d rather shutter the store than “let some stranger mess up the taste.” His son works in Tokyo. No one local wants the job. The shop is closing next spring.

Cultural Design Flaws

Much of this begins with Japan’s deeply rooted household structure: the ie (家) system. This concept goes back centuries. It emphasized family continuity, responsibility, and inheritance through bloodlines or carefully selected heirs like mukoyoshi (adopted sons-in-law). The business was the house. The house was the name.

Even after post-war reforms officially dismantled the legal framework of ie, the mentality remained. Honor your ancestors. Protect the brand. Don’t let outsiders in.

This creates enormous internal pressure. If no one in the family wants to take over, the founder sees retirement as abandonment. Selling the business to a stranger is viewed as surrendering your name.

So the shop closes.

The Real Cost of Cultural Rigidity

The result is a national small business crisis. Japan has over 1.2 million businesses without successors, according to Teikoku Databank. Nearly 40% of owners over 60 say they would rather liquidate than pass it to someone they don’t know. And the system enables that choice.
Banks still require personal guarantees, often discouraging anyone but the founder from taking on loans. Younger generations, wary of economic stagnation and high responsibility, often opt out. Foreign entrepreneurs, meanwhile, face enormous bureaucratic walls to even get started. This isn’t a case of markets collapsing. It’s a refusal to redesign the system for survival.
A row of Japanese businesses in a rural town in Japan.

The Myth of Profitability

People assume that if a business is profitable, it should survive. But in Japan, profit doesn’t protect you from social pressure or outdated expectations. Legacy brands aren’t always valued. Often they’re a burden.

There are sushi shops making ¥10M a year in net profit, with no one lined up to take over. Why? Because the kids don’t want to inherit 16-hour days, low social status, and a business tied to one neighborhood.

This is why Japan business closures keep increasing. Profitability doesn’t matter if continuity feels impossible.

A Quiet Collapse with Loud Effects

Each shuttered business sends out shockwaves.

In Tokyo, it might mean one less bento shop. In Wakayama, it could be the only hardware store for 20 kilometers. In Ibaraki, it might be the community center that was also a cafe.

These closures hollow out towns. They leave behind boarded windows and stories with no future. And once they disappear, they rarely come back.

A 90-year-old soba restaurant in Yamanashi closed last year. The building is still there. But mold is creeping through the tatami. The sign has faded. People drive past and feel something has gone missing—even if they didn’t eat there often.

This is not just about economics. It’s about identity loss. Memory degradation.

What Akiyaz Sees

At Akiyaz, we view this as a design opportunity. Rather than waiting for a family heir to magically return, we focus on succession problems as systems design failures.

We work with sellers who are ready to be honest. Buyers who are ready to build. Municipalities that are ready to support new models.

Our Work Includes

  • Facilitating conversations between elderly shopkeepers and first-time foreign buyers
  • Helping local officials see how flexible zoning could save a historic commercial corridor
  • Coordinating with lawyers to make ownership transfers clearer and faster for non-Japanese applicants
  • Supporting entrepreneurs who want to combine legacy with innovation, like turning a closed fish processing facility into a craft brewery

We believe that succession should be reframed as selection.

Other Nations Watching

Japan is not alone. South Korea faces similar succession rates. Germany’s Mittelstand—small and midsize family businesses—are beginning to experience their own demographic cliff. In the United States, baby boomer-led firms are closing at a historic rate, with millennial buyers preferring to start fresh rather than inherit.

But Japan offers a cautionary tale of what happens when continuity is prioritized over adaptability.

The question is not, “Who will inherit?” but “What conditions would allow someone to care enough to stay?”

Rebuilding Legacies by Redesign

Akiyaz believes that there is a path forward. But it must begin with three shifts:

  1. Normalize external successors
    Businesses should be encouraged to find the best next operator, not the nearest relative.
  2. Digitize and document
    Even simple improvements like digital inventory systems or written manuals can make a huge difference for transfer readiness.
  3. Leverage lifestyle migration
    Many people want to live in Japan, but don’t know how to stay. Linking succession opportunities to visa programs—like investor or management visas—could create a powerful pipeline of new business leaders.

Let the Torch Pass, Even If It Burns Differently

The point of a legacy isn’t replication. It’s continuation.

Let the next soba master change the recipe. Let the next innkeeper turn the ryokan into a co-working and arts retreat. Let it evolve.

This is not cultural erosion. It’s cultural preservation through use. Through relevance.

Letting it sit silent guarantees only decay.

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CultureJapan Business Closures Reveal Deeper Crisis Than Demographics